We plan our work over five years. The Sixth Carbon Budget Advice and the Third Climate Change Risk Assessment were our last major outputs, published two years ago. Now our attention turns to the Seventh Carbon Budget and the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment (get ready for ‘CB7’ and ‘CCRA4’ to enter common usage).

2023 is the midpoint of the cycle. This year, we’ll define what we hope to achieve and build a programme of research, engagement and analysis to do it.

The Seventh Carbon Budget takes us into the early 2040s, a period when we should have fully decarbonised some key UK sectors. What happens if we haven’t? How should other sectors respond if decarbonisation is slower or faster than anticipated?

And by that time, the UK is likely to be experiencing much more intense effects from the warming climate. Can we build a coherent view of how these changes will affect the UK and how we might respond? This year we begin the UK’s Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment, with the intention of providing more in-depth answers to these questions – and how we might quantify the benefits of adaptation and the inherent linkages across our society.

The Climate Change Act requires us to think in this way – a medium-term focus, anchored by a long-term goal – but it’s an outlook I’d commend to others.

Every year we gather more evidence on the multiple benefits of tackling climate change. It requires changes to key systems that we all depend upon – our food, energy and transport systems for example. It needs investment in new infrastructure, new industries, new jobs. These changes are rooted in actions we take now. They take time – and we will fail to realise the benefits if we do not anchor our response to immediate pressures – on energy security, and the cost-of-living crisis– in these longer-term goals.

Our analytical programme in 2023 is driven by this type of thinking. Much of the analysis we are commencing this year will not be published until after the next UK General Election. That adds extra potency – many critical climate policy decisions fall in the crucial second half of the 2020s, early in the next Parliament.

The increasing interconnection of mitigation and adaptation

We have set ourselves a further challenge from 2023 onwards: to integrate our analysis of our twin responsibilities, reducing emissions and adapting to climate change.

Under the Climate Change Act, the CCC has two expert Committees on mitigation and adaptation. To date, the CCC analytical teams have also been separate. But from 2023, we have new CCC teams looking across the interconnected mitigation and adaptation challenges:

• Built environment – decarbonising buildings, while making our urban areas more climate resilient to heatwaves and flood risks.
• Infrastructure – understanding the infrastructure requirements of net-zero for industry and transport, while preparing for different and often more intense weather extremes, and the higher risks of supply chain interruptions that climate change will bring.
• Energy supply – building a deeper understanding of how we decarbonise our energy system, while making it more climate resilient and energy secure, particularly to the weather extremes that could impact on a highly renewable based future energy system.
• Land, agriculture – perhaps the most exciting area of new analysis. Establishing an integrated view of the changes we need in land and food systems to achieve net-zero in a warming climate – and doing so in a way that protects natural systems, agricultural productivity and enhances biodiversity. This is an area where we hope to look again, over the coming years, at some key elements of the climate and environment challenges.

And we have established analytical teams to consider wider, cross-society, issues:

• People and business – building a clearer view of the role of business in the transition, how finance will support it – and how changes to incentives might encourage people to play more of a role in the UK’s climate response. And new analytical resource on one of the key aspects of the net zero transition: the changes ahead for workers and skills.
• International – bringing in evidence of the response in other parts of the world, and greater outreach capacity to allow us to establish stronger links with other climate advisory bodies and their governments.

We’ve also integrated the work of our two Committees, with key members of the mitigation and adaptation committees moving across more freely as our work requires it. These changes are designed to give the CCC a new outlook. It’s exciting to make this a reality – a forerunner of the same challenges that the UK will face in delivering these changes on the ground.

Here are some of the key reports coming up in 2023:

• February
  • The Impacts of Net Zero on Workers. Analysis of the implications of the Net Zero transition for the UK labour market, assessing risks and opportunities for workers. More work is planned through the year on this theme.
  • Adaptation Investment. Insights on the UK’s adaptation investment requirements and how these can be financed.
• Spring
  • Requirements of a zero-carbon power system. New analysis of the requirements for a resilient, reliable zero-carbon power system in the UK, with new modelling of the phase-out of unabated gas, and the role of hydrogen and storage in achieving the Government’s aim of zero-carbon power by 2035.
  • Adaptation Progress Report – England. Assessment of progress in delivering adaptation in England, in advance of the third National Adaptation Plan, due from Defra late this year.
  • Role of business in a Net Zero UK. New insights from our business advisory group, formed to consider how business and the private sector can support the Net Zero transition.
  • Adaptation Progress Report – Northern Ireland
  • Adaptation Progress Report – Wales
• Summer
  • Public Engagement on Climate Change
  • Reducing UK Emissions – Progress Report
  • Fairness and Affordability. New modelling exploring policies for a fair transition – and how costs and benefits can be allocated fairly across UK households.

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Supply chains are the arteries of our economic system, spanning across continents and sectors, often complex and highly specialized. Built with a focus on speed and efficiency, supply chains are very vulnerable to any type of disruption. Recent events, such as Covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have brought this to the fore, with significant impacts on people and the economy, causing rises in food and energy prices and disruption to the production and transportation of a wide range of intermediate inputs or final goods.  

A growing challenge for global supply chains are the physical impacts of a changing climate, with floods, heatwaves, droughts and windstorms triggering cascading impacts that can be felt locally, but also far away from where the actual event is taking place. This year record low river levels in Europe, China and the US in the summer of 2022 have caused factories and agriculture to reduce production, cargo ships to carry smaller loads and the risks of power blackouts for millions of people.  

All three of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessments (CCRA) including the most recent one, have highlighted the need for more action to increase the resilience of the UK’s domestic and international supply chains. Given the growing urgency, the CCC has written a new supply chain briefing to summarise the evidence in this area and identify actions for government and businesses.  

The CCC’s evidence shows that we are already experiencing disruption to domestic supply chains from floods, droughts, high temperatures and other extreme weather in the UK. A recent example of this was the impact of unusually poor weather conditions in 2020 on production of wheat, a key part of food supply chains. Very wet weather, followed by very dry weather, meant wheat yields were the lowest since 1981 and over £500m lower in value than the average for the previous four years. In a recent survey from the Business Continuity Institute 42% of all respondents identified that extreme weather events had resulted in supply chain disruptions. 

The UK is also exposed to extreme weather and climate risks around the world through international supply chains. Geographic concentrations of key inputs and products create the potential for greater impacts from weather-related disruption. These can be things like critical minerals or semiconductor chips which are currently produced mainly in East Asia, or everyday items like tea and coffee which are mainly produced in Asia and South America, and in the case of tea, many exports are from a few countries like Kenya and Sri Lanka.  

As highlighted by the recent UK CCRA3, climate change is increasing the risks of disruption. Global temperature will keep rising until global CO2 emissions reach Net Zero, and some aspects of the climate (such as sea-levels) will keep changing for centuries. This inevitable climate change means that exposure of UK supply chains to climate hazards in the UK and internationally is set to increase. Some parts of supply chains will come under particular stress. For example, supply chains which involve occupations or sectors requiring significant amounts of outdoor labour, such as agriculture and construction, may be particularly impacted by more frequent and extreme heatwaves. 

The good news is that there is a lot that both businesses and government can do to reduce our vulnerability to these risks now and in the future.  The CCC has identified a range of adaptation actions that can increase supply chain resilience. One thing that is key for both is to learn lessons from the disruption of recent years; in particular, that we cannot think about these different supply chain risks in isolation. Efforts to increase resilience need to consider the potential for interacting or cascading risks. They must also incorporate climate risks at the same time as other trends, such as the Net Zero transition, increased digitalisation and changing trading patterns. 

There are a range of actions and strategies that businesses can use to make their supply chains more resilient, including to the risks from climate change. Some of these actions may be within a businesses’ direct control, for example flood proofing a grain silo, others may be outside of their direct control and will require working with their suppliers, service providers and infrastructure operators. Examples of business actions include collaborative planning and control with suppliers and infrastructure operators; diversifying the geographic location of suppliers, which will spread supply disruption risk across more regions, and diversifying supply routes and transportation modes, which will spread supply disruption risk across different parts of the transport system. Larger businesses have a particularly important role to play given their ability to influence the actions of their suppliers and ensure the health and resilience of the places their suppliers are located in. 

As documented in the CCC’s Adaptation progress reports, government has an essential role to enable, support and build capacity. Actions for government to make supply chains resilient fall under several key responsibilities and extend across multiple government departments. These key responsibilities include stress testing of supply chains, international and trade policy, effective reporting of risk and adaptation by organisations, information provision and promoting procurement which incorporates resilience. If delivered alongside other adaptation in the UK this will not only protect people and the UK economy from the impacts of future disruptions but will give the UK a comparative advantage, as a more attractive destination for businesses to locate parts of their supply chain.  

Resilient supply chains are a critical part of delivering a well-adapted UK. If government and businesses take action now, we can all benefit from a more secure supply of food, energy and other goods and services that we depend on.  

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This summer was characterised by extremes in the UK’s climate. The temperature record was smashed, exceeding 40ºC for the first time, while large parts of the country remain officially in drought.

High temperatures in homes negatively impact people’s lives. Sleep is disrupted, with knock on impacts on health and productivity. Even more seriously, high temperatures can cause illness and, in some cases, even death. Addressing the risk of overheating requires newly built houses to be constructed with a consideration of high temperatures, and that some existing homes are retrofitted to keep down internal temperatures during hot weather.

We recently invited Arup to carry out some research which looked at the extent of overheating in existing homes and the cost of limiting it. The key things we learned are:

• A high proportion of existing homes fail to meet the new overheating standard for new homes. The majority of existing UK homes are estimated to fail the current standard used in the buildings regulations to limit overheating in new build homes. Overheating was modelled to be more prevalent in certain parts of the country such as the south of England and London, and in certain building types such as smaller dwellings such as flats. The fraction of buildings which overheat increases significantly in a warmer world.
• Retrofitting homes to meet this standard can be achieved but would require a range of measures to be implemented by homeowners and occupants. Low-cost measures, and behavioural changes provide a first line of defence during periods of high temperatures. The study demonstrates this by showing that blinds, curtains and the opening/ closing of windows at the right time of day can be important in mitigating overheating effectively. Beyond this, a significant proportion of the stock can be cooled using only passive (e.g. external shading), rather than active cooling (e.g. air conditioning). With 2ºC of warming, passive measures, which require no energy use, can reduce overheating in up to 80% of dwellings. If we were to experience 4°C of warming however, there is a limit to the effectiveness of passive cooling.
• Reducing overheating in homes requires significant investment. A range of measures for cooling homes were studied, the costs of which can be significant (upwards of £10,000). However, what is clearly shown in this study is the benefit of simultaneously addressing overheating and reducing emissions from buildings. Energy efficiency measures such as wall or loft insulation, if installed properly, can reduce overheating risk, whilst also reducing households’ energy use. On the other hand, if energy efficiency is installed without adequate ventilation, it can considerably exacerbate the risk of overheating.

The study has unearthed some tricky questions. Perhaps the most pressing is whether the requirement for new homes should be extended to existing homes, or a different standard developed.

There are various ways Government could use its policy tools to encourage more action here, summarised in the overheating briefing we published earlier this summer. The Government took an important first step towards managing this risk by introducing an overheating standard for new build homes this year. Whilst this is a great step forward, there remains a lack of policy to incentivise action in existing buildings.

Next year, the Government will publish its 3^rd National Adaptation Programme. We are expecting to see concrete proposals for how the UK building stock will be made resilient to future climate, and public information campaigns to encourage effective behavioural change across society.

Note: Impact of mitigation packages at UK scale: percentage of UK homes overheating under each weather scenario and with different packages applied. All packages are passive measures only. Package 1 is least costly, package 4 is most costly.

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The Government have committed to fully decarbonising electricity generation by 2035. To understand the challenges this will pose for electricity markets, and what the solutions might need to look like, the CCC has published the report of an independent Expert Group.

Meeting the Net Zero target across the economy as a whole will require at least a doubling of electricity generation by 2050, from decarbonised sources. The cost reductions seen over the past decade mean that renewables – especially offshore wind – will have a major role to play in the future UK electricity mix.

However, renewables have very different characteristics compared to the coal and gas plants that have dominated electricity generation for the last century. This therefore indicates the long-term fundamentals of how electricity markets operate will need to be adapted to meet Net Zero. Coal and gas plants are able to generate on demand and most of their costs are operating (fuel) costs rather than the capital costs of their construction. In contrast, renewables have large up-front construction costs, but close to zero operating costs from the free wind and sun. Because renewables generate when the wind blows or the sun shines, rather than on demand, future markets will need to incentivise the new technologies needed to support the electricity system when these renewables are not generating. Those include low-carbon alternatives to gas (e.g. gas with carbon capture and storage, or hydrogen-fuelled turbines), but also other options including forms of storage (e.g. by converting excess electricity supply into hydrogen) or ways to smooth demand to avoid excessive spikes (e.g. through smart charging of electric vehicles).

To deliver the Government’s aim of fully decarbonising electricity generation by 2035, the market structure will need to support large-scale investment in renewables, reward new flexible technologies, and take a whole-system perspective to ensure incentives for both demand and supply. The Committee’s advice on the Sixth Carbon Budget recognised this issue and recommended the Government develop a strategy for identifying and undertaking the reforms that are needed. And the Government have recently published a consultation on a Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA), which aims to do just that.

To feed into that process, and to help develop its thinking, the Committee set up an independently chaired Expert Group to consider these issues in more detail. The work of the Group was completed before the REMA consultation was published, but a priority for the Group was to try and develop a consensus around the key questions and challenges market reforms should be trying to address and, from those, recommendations for next steps. The report reflects their views, not those of the CCC.

The Group agreed that current policies are not sufficient alone to meet the challenges identified for fully decarbonising electricity generation.

They considered that the biggest challenge in the 2020s will be mobilising the huge investment needed in low-carbon generation, storage and networks. In the 2030s the biggest challenges will be the efficient operation of the low-carbon electricity system, with a much more dynamic demand side once electric vehicles and heat pumps are more widespread.

A key criterion for the Group was the need to avoid an investment hiatus, given the pace and scale of investment needed over the coming decade. This suggests that an evolutionary approach is needed in the near term (2020s), with any more fundamental reforms such as full location-specific pricing considered for the 2030s.

Looking at some of the options that have been proposed for market reform, the Group concluded that evolutionary reform of current Contracts for Difference, combined with a greater degree of location-based pricing, and associated changes to the Capacity Market could address a number of the challenges identified and ensure stability from an investor confidence perspective.

The Group identified there are other key challenges that none of the options satisfactorily addressed. This included the need for solutions to address energy mismatches. For example, hydrogen production can absorb excess renewable generation when wind speeds are high, but clarity is needed to ensure good alignment of incentives for how this could operate within the wholesale market. And a framework needs to be provided for engaging consumers to realise the potential flexibility of local assets (e.g. smart electric vehicle charging).  More work is needed to develop options which address these challenges.

The Expert Group’s report is helpful for clarifying priorities for the REMA process and the delivery of rapid investment in low-carbon capacity over the coming decade. The Committee now intends to publish a new report in early 2023 on how an operable, low-carbon electricity system can be delivered by 2035 – in the new context of the Government’s recent interventions to tackle energy prices and rapidly reform various aspects of the wholesale market.

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The CCC recently collaborated with Lancaster University on a deliberative policy design process, focused on policies for decarbonising owner-occupied homes. We convened a citizens’ panel on home energy decarbonisation – bringing together homeowners to explore policies for dealing with the challenge of retrofitting homes with efficiency measures and low-carbon heating. This work informs the CCC’s advice to Government, alongside our rigorous independent analysis, extensive stakeholder discussions and review of existing evidence.

What does a deliberative process involve?

Deliberative processes are a means of exploring and designing policies in collaboration with members of the public who would be impacted by them if implemented. They bring together a representative group of people who might be affected by new policy, provide them with evidence and information, allow them to debate the issues involved, and enable them to develop proposals and recommendations. This generally involves three main steps:

• Learning: where participants develop their understanding of the issues, consider evidence and hear from experts.
• Deliberation: structured discussion – typically guided by trained facilitators – between participants and with experts, to consolidate knowledge, develop views and generate ideas.
• Conclusions: generating findings and recommendations, which may be through consensus building, voting, or a combination of both.

Deliberative methods require a group of participants who are representative of the people who would be impacted by the policy, rather than just those who already have an interest in the policy area. This is usually achieved through random sampling, with stratification to ensure that differing characteristics of  the population are adequately represented. Participants are often compensated for their time, to reduce barriers to participation.

The deliberative process involves structured meetings and workshops, enabling participants to learn about the policy problem and develop their own solutions. The process needs to be well planned – incorporating inputs from relevant experts and guided by trained facilitators.

Why use deliberative methods to develop climate policies?

Tackling climate change requires changes that may directly affect how people live their lives – potentially changing how they travel, how they heat their homes, and what they consume. These policies will be most successful if they are well designed and widely accepted. One way to increase the chances of success is for people who will be affected by policies to have a say in designing them.

This isn’t easy to achieve: most people lack the time and expertise to respond to policy consultations. But without this input, public views on policies can be difficult to gauge, and policy choices tend to be heavily influenced by particular groups and interests. Without adequate public engagement, policies are made without the valuable input of the diverse range of people who will be affected by them, and people may feel policies are implemented without considering their views. Deliberative methods offer a means of addressing these problems.

Deliberative methods offer a number of advantages which can help to deliver better policymaking, across a range of climate policy challenges:

• Ensuring that groups who will be affected by policies are represented and are able to influence decision-making.
• Increasing trust in the policy process (if the policy preferences obtained by the process are implemented).
• Enabling public support for policies to be tested, and allowing concerns to be identified and addressed.
• Giving policymakers confidence to act, by demonstrating public appetite for policy proposals.
• Offering a setting for diffusing conflict and resolving opposing arguments, and for developing policy in novel and unfamiliar areas.
• Providing time and space for considering interactions between a range of policies across linked policy areas.

In our 2022 Progress Report, the CCC recommended that the Government embeds deliberative methods into its process of developing policies for delivering Net Zero. Organising and running deliberative processes requires resources and expertise. But the appropriate use of deliberative processes can help in delivering better solutions to difficult policy problems, and avoiding policy failure.

For the CCC itself, deliberative methods can provide new insights for our advice to government. We have no direct control of policy, but we make regular policy recommendations. Deliberative methods offer the potential to broaden the evidence for our advice.

The citizens’ panel on home energy decarbonisation

The citizens’ panel on home energy decarbonisation allowed CCC analysts to experience a deliberative process in practice. It allowed us to explore the use of deliberative methods in developing policy as well as to obtain views on addressing a particular policy problem.

The citizens’ panel involved the participants attending seven meetings, totalling nearly 25 hours, over the course of six weeks. The participants learned about options for decarbonising home energy use and developed a package of policy measures for delivering change. The process generated valuable evidence of the types of policies which homeowners wish to see in order to decarbonise their homes.

We were able to see the value of deliberative processes – offering clarity on the public’s policy preferences and providing a strong mandate for action.

The process showed that:

• People accepted the need to make changes to their homes, and were willing to act.
• People wanted the Government to set out clear, long-term policy programmes for delivering the changes required to their homes.
• People wanted clear, reliable and detailed information on the changes which will be needed to their homes.
• People supported a range of solutions to help decarbonise their homes. These include the need for:
  • Long-term strategy, providing clarity to homeowners and including regulations to compel action.
  • Government action to increase public awareness and provide trusted energy advice.
  • Enhancements to Energy Performance Certificates to provide records of the retrofit work required and completed in every home.
  • Incentives for homeowners to improve their homes such as stamp duty reductions, tax discounts, and property-linked loans, alongside grants to support those least able to pay.
  • Policies to ensure a supply of reliable, well-trained installers, and services help people find trusted contractors.

We would like to thank Becky Willis and Jacob Ainscough of Lancaster University for inviting the CCC to collaborate in this work. We’d also like to thank all the participants in the Citizens’ Panel for their involvement, enthusiasm and valuable insights on such an important policy area. We’d also like to thank Shared Future, for facilitating, and the commentators and advisory group for their time and inputs.

Further information: As part of the collaboration with the CCC, Lancaster University have produced two reports. The first examines the role of deliberative methods in climate policy development. The second details the process and outcome of the citizens’ panel on home energy decarbonisation. Both are available on the CCC website. The collaboration with Lancaster University is part of the university’s Climate Citizens project. More information is available at https://climatecitizens.org.uk/.

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Over the last year the UK has been battered by a number of large storms. Last November, Storm Arwen brought severe winds and left over one million people without power. Heat, water and phone services were cut off for others, while around 40,000 went without power for more than three days and nearly 4,000 were cut off for more than seven days. Then, in February, storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin hit the British Isles in the space of a week, bringing heavy rain and severe winds. Three people lost their lives and disruption to roads and bridges, railway lines, airports and power infrastructure was widespread.  

These recent storms should remind us all of the disruption that extreme weather can cause. We already know, too, that climate change is altering the nature of weather-related pressures on our infrastructure and will continue to do so in the future. Winters will be wetter and rainfall heavier, heatwaves more common and more intense, and changes in the strength and frequency of storms are also possible. Prudent planning today to keep our society and our infrastructure resilient to weather extremes is vital – and particularly as our power, digital, water and transport systems become increasingly interconnected.  

Infrastructure operators are on the frontline of efforts to ensure we are resilient to the extreme weather we experience today – and to prepare for what might happen tomorrow. Given the critical role they play, the UK’s Climate Change Act allows the Government to request regular reports from these vital service providers on how they are tackling the challenges of climate change, known as the Adaptation Reporting Power (ARP). We were asked by the Government, namely the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), to review all of the reports submitted in the most recent third round of the ARP, which concluded in December. Our findings and conclusions are published today.  

First, the good news. Overall, infrastructure providers’ reports are improving in quality over time, and this ARP round has significantly bolstered our understanding of the climate risks to UK infrastructure and the progress being made in preparing for them. Most organisations who submitted a report to Government have followed best practice by assessing the risks they face based on the latest Met Office climate projections for the UK; have considered a range of plausible future climate conditions; and have a plan in place to prepare and respond.  

However, there are limitations in the current approach that are undermining the effectiveness of this process in informing UK policy on climate adaptation. Reporting in this round, and the previous one in 2016, was voluntary; there are gaps in coverage due to non-reporting; and some key sectors are not being invited to report. Reporting dates are misaligned with the Government’s adaptation policy cycle, meaning less than 5% of all reports were available to inform the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment published earlier in 2022. And, critically, while quality has improved, many key organisations are still struggling to adequately take account of their risks from infrastructure interdependencies, which could lead to cascading failures in service provision if not addressed. Continuing to improve the ARP process is critical to ensuring that climate risk to our vital infrastructure is kept in check. Our new report includes key recommendations to ensure future rounds fully inform national climate risk planning.

The Government should:  

1. Make it mandatory. Participation in ARP reporting is currently voluntary and one in five invited organisations did not submit a report, limiting the picture of climate preparedness across UK infrastructure, and interdependence risk. A mandatory requirement to report in the next round would help close these key gaps.  
2. Extend the scope. Some key sectors are not currently invited to report, including canals and reservoirs, aspects of the health and social care sector, local authority infrastructure-related functions and food supply chains. Adding these to future reporting rounds would provide a more complete picture of the UK’s climate resilience.  
3. Adjust the timeline. Misaligned timings in the UK’s climate adaptation policy cycle are preventing critical information from being incorporated into nationwide assessments of climate risk and national adaptation planning. The reporting timeline should instead be set to 2024 to inform the next UK Climate Change Risk Assessment and the associated National Adaptation Programme.  

Understanding and addressing the risks to vital infrastructure from future weather and climate is a critical part of delivering a well-adapted UK. The Adaptation Reporting Power, if optimised, can play an important role in achieving that vision.  

Cara Labuschagne is a Senior Analyst and the CCC’s Infrastructure Lead for Adaptation

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The UK has more than 28.5 million homes, and another 1.9 million other buildings – offices, hospitals, shops, warehouses and more. The majority of these are heated by gas boilers, which also provide hot water – the bulk of the rest use petroleum for the same end. Burning these fuels produces carbon dioxide, making buildings the second-largest source of greenhouse gases after surface transport (cars, trucks and trains). Nearly a fifth of all the UK’s emissions come from buildings, and that is before we even consider electricity used within buildings.

We cannot reach Net Zero if we continue to use gas for heat. Changing how we heat our homes and buildings is essential; but this effort will deliver a range of other benefits. Ending our reliance on gas can also help to reduce the cost of living through lower energy bills. Homes which are more energy efficient can be warmer in the winter, cooler in the summer, better ventilated, less damp, more comfortable and ultimately be more affordable places to live.

The UK Government’s Heat and Buildings Strategy, published in October 2021, describes a broad set of policies and programmes to tackle this challenge. We have examined these proposals in detail and today we publish an independent assessment of the Strategy. Here are five key takeaways from our report:

A step forward for ambition

Successive governments have struggled to make meaningful progress on decarbonising buildings. But with the Heat and Buildings Strategy the UK Government has taken a clear step towards Net Zero. This strategy brings the actions the Government is committing to closer to its ambitions.

Much remains to be done, but the signs are encouraging. The Strategy includes promising new proposals including: specific deadlines for when gas and oil boilers should be phased out, new long-term policies for low-carbon heat, and new funding for heat networks, public buildings and the fuel poor.

We are now in a new phase of action on climate change as the Government, and the CCC, shift from considering what needs to be done to how well policies are being delivered. Our assessment reflects this, accepting that while the broad approach aligns with the CCC’s earlier advice, the Government has also made clear choices about specific policies. For example, the Government expects a different balance between heat pumps (more than our Balanced Net Zero pathway) and district heat networks (less) by the late 2030s. Although in overall terms this can still deliver the same result.

Funding and policy gaps remain

Public buildings and fuel poor homes need public money for energy efficiency and low-carbon heat improvements. The UK Government has committed funds but it is likely to need to invest more. Especially given that the number of households in fuel poverty is rising dramatically as the wholesale price of gas rises to unprecedented levels.

Action can pay dividends. Improving energy efficiency of homes is one of the easiest and most cost-effective steps to reduce the impact of high bills in the near term and will help get the UK to Net Zero in the longer-term. In our Sixth Carbon Budget advice we noted how the capital investment needed to get to Net Zero more than paid for itself through savings on fuel, healthcare, and other costs. Recent events have shifted the calculus on this even further in favour of taking decisive action now.

There are also key areas where there are gaps in policy. Critically, the policies needed to drive improvements in energy efficiency in homes that are not fuel poor are currently inadequate. Ideally the Government would have stronger standards for these homes, perhaps enforced at the point of sale or new tenancy, which will drive improvements in line with the natural turnover of properties in those markets. There are also gaps around policies for energy efficiency in small commercial buildings which need similar attention.

The benefits and risks of a market-based approach

A key feature of the Government’s approach is creating new markets for low carbon heat. Currently, the UK does not have anywhere near enough capacity in its supply chains to install the number of heat pumps or heat networks that the UK will need in the years to come. The Government projects 600,000 heat pump installations per year by 2028, up from around 35,000 last year.

A market-based approach has upsides. It creates space for innovation, it places less of a burden on the Exchequer, and it allows homeowners, communities and local authorities more flexibility around how, when and what technologies they use to improve buildings.

However, new markets need demand to grow, and supply to match it. The Government is providing some limited capital funding to prime the markets and is introducing new, tighter, regulations to create demand. These include higher standards for new build homes, intended to create demand for heat pumps, and zoning regulations for heat networks. The Government is also pursuing supply-side policies, including obligations on boiler and heat pump manufacturers and potentially energy companies to deliver a certain number of low carbon heat installations each year.

But there are risks. To grow both demand and supply at the same time requires an extraordinary level of policy coordination. Many different parts of Government and the private sector will need to act in concert. And there are important barriers, such as the relative costs of electricity and gas and shortages of skilled installers.

Time is short and more detail is needed

For all its detail, the Strategy leaves many questions unanswered. Our analysis highlights these, from uncertainties around how the market-based mechanism will operate, to the governance arrangements for energy planning. Many of the policies for heat and buildings have ambitious timelines. And the Government will need to take a careful, consultative approach. These are big, strategic decisions that will be difficult to shift away from. For example, the role of hydrogen in the UK’s future energy mix.

The consultations will need to produce decisions. The Government needs to move fast to complete its current engagement and clarify the fine details of how many of its policies and programmes are going to work. If nothing else, this detail is essential to enable individuals and firms to start taking action, raising finance and making spending decisions to improve homes and other buildings.

These details include: what efficiency standards will apply to for existing residential and non-residential buildings, how obligations will apply to boiler manufacturers, mortgage lenders and others, and what new powers will bodies have, both in central government and local.

Taking action on ‘enablers’

Our assessment also considers the key role of a range of other factors which we call ‘enablers’. These include the size of the workforce, access to finance, the availability of good information about homes and buildings, planning systems, and public engagement. These will require action from many parts of Government. For instance, the UK’s construction workforce has shrunk since 2019 – yet we are about to need thousands more workers to install heat pumps and energy efficiency measures, to conduct surveys and assessments, and design new, stronger electricity grids to meet future demand. Getting this will require new, and similarly ambitious policies to help reverse the current trend and see this sector grow again. More detail on plans to ensure homes and building owners have access to affordable finance to fund retrofit and low-carbon heating installations will also be needed.

Next steps for buildings

The Government is beginning a multi-decade programme of policies which will fundamentally transform how our homes use energy. At the same time, the price of that energy is driving sharp increases in the cost of living. Navigating this situation will be tough, but the multiple benefits of reducing the nation’s dependence on fossil fuels have never been clearer.

The post Taking stock of the UK Government’s Heat and Buildings Strategy appeared first on Climate Change Committee.

In 2022 the CCC will enter its 15th year. This website lists 325 separate publications since our establishment, a huge library of insights. It’s interesting to browse the titles to get a sense of how the CCC’s focus has changed over the years. Alongside our regular statutory publications, you can spot the climate issues that have taken priority with each passing year. Some now seem from a different age, others are as topical as ever.

Our emphasis will shift again in 2022. The COP26 climate conference in Glasgow provided a focal point for UK climate policy in 2021, the draw for new ambitions from Government and new commitments from the private sector. The UK’s climate goals have been substantially reset, so the focus moves to delivery and implementation. Ministers have made clear that the lion’s share of progress will be made by the private sector, led by Government. So that is where the CCC’s attention must also turn: private sector delivery and implementation of the public policies to underpin it. And ‘delivery’ in 2022 will have to be achieved in the context of a dramatic spike in global fossil fuel prices and new pressures on the cost of living, as we recover from the pandemic.

Our programme of work responds to these new circumstances. This year we will publish new advice that will differ substantially from our output of recent years, considering various aspects of the multiple climate challenges across the UK.

Reducing emissions

Our recent advice on emissions reduction has been dominated by the collective refocusing of efforts on the goal of Net Zero emissions by 2050. It is difficult to overstate the importance of the Government’s actions in the last three years: setting a new UK Net Zero target in 2019, then legislating the Sixth Carbon Budget in 2021 in line with our ‘Balanced Net Zero Pathway’, and finally publishing the Net Zero strategy, which we reviewed here. We’ve seen similar progress in Scotland and Wales, and clear moves towards new climate legislation in Northern Ireland.

The statutory architecture for reaching Net Zero across the UK is now substantially in place, so we must move to a new phase of work.

Our analysis will continue to be rooted in the key sectoral challenges: energy supply; surface transport; buildings; industry; agriculture; aviation; shipping; waste; fluorinated-gases and greenhouse gas removals. And we’ll continue to offer an integrated view of the UK’s infrastructure requirements, land use changes, and key questions over the use of biomass and carbon capture and storage. We plan a reboot in our approach to monitoring progress across these areas and we’ll deepen our advice on the specific circumstances in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland.

And from 2022 we’ll also provide new advice on the cross-economy enablers of the transition:

• Governance and delivery – including how delivery is organised within Government and coordinated with local Government and other regulatory or public bodies.
• People and public engagement – considering public attitudes to the changes ahead and how people can be engaged, informed and consulted.
• Fair funding – how the benefits and costs of the Net Zero transition can be spread fairly across households, business and the Exchequer, with special focus on fiscal policies and managing impacts on energy bills.
• Workers and skills – building better insights into the changes ahead for the UK’s workforce, the regional and sectoral challenges, and how the shift in skills demand can be anticipated so it doesn’t present a barrier to rapid progress.
• Business action, investment and finance – working with the private sector to offer new insights on shaping corporate commitments to complement the national effort and advising on Government policies that are investible and help to reduce the cost of private finance.

Our 2022 publications kick off in the next few weeks, with advice on new oil and gas licensing in the UK, and its compatibility with our climate objectives. And we’ll stay offshore with a new briefing on ‘blue carbon’ in coastal and marine ecosystems, drawing together the latest evidence on the climate contribution of UK waters. Over the year, we’ll also publish some deep dives into the new Net Zero Strategy, beginning with a review of the Government’s approach to decarbonising heat and buildings, taking us into one of the most contested recent topics: how to decarbonise homes and support consumers at the same time.

Adapting to climate change

In 2021 we produced our independent assessment of UK Climate Risk, a comprehensive appraisal of the risks and opportunities presented by current and future climate change here in the UK. Later this month the Government will respond to that assessment, formally laying the third climate change risk assessment before Parliament, as required under the Climate Change Act.

That will mark the end of the third cycle of climate risk assessment and the beginning of the fourth. In our new adaptation work programme, we intend to focus more on the practical response to key climate risks, quantifying and clarifying the goals for adaptation where possible and shining a light on the need for realistic plans in each part of the UK to adapt to climate change.

In the coming months we’ll also publish an assessment of the latest Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme and appraise the reports from critical organisations on how they have factored climate change adaptation into their own business planning, through the Adaptation Reporting Powers contained in Climate Change Act.

International action

The UK holds the COP Presidency for most of 2022, before handing it to Egypt at COP27. This is a unique period for UK climate diplomacy. Our COP26 round-up considered the achievements of Glasgow, the implications of the new Glasgow Climate Pact, and how it might be applied at home. The coming year represents another crucial phase for UK climate leadership, so we will monitor the progress of the UK programme and appraise the global circumstances, just as the Climate Change Act requires.

One of the most valuable legacies of COP26 is the strengthened links the CCC now holds with similar advisory bodies around the world, through the new International Climate Councils Network. We’ll continue to share the UK’s experience and learn from the very different approaches taken in other countries.

Monitoring progress

This year, too, we’ll revamp the CCC’s approach to progress monitoring and reporting, under the Climate Change Act. The Act makes it the responsibility of Government to act on the targets set by Parliament. We are given the twin role of advising Government on the achievement of these goals and appraising the progress of Government in meeting them. We’ve thought carefully about the second of these duties – getting it right will help to inform Parliamentary scrutiny and can itself support new action and better policymaking.

Again, our focus must shift to the real world. It’s no longer enough to look for the existence of a Government policy, most gaps have been filled in some way or another. We now need to appraise whether the programme is delivering real change on the ground. That’s especially challenging when the private sector – individuals and corporates – are often frontline in driving the changes at the scale and pace that’s required.

So, June will be a notable moment, as we publish our latest UK Progress Report to Parliament and launch our updated approach. We are developing new metrics of progress, peering beneath the policies, and building a better dashboard of indicators, with timely information and a broader outlook on what drives real-world progress, including non-Government actions.

We are also working on a new framework for monitoring progress on emissions reduction, and a strengthened framework for monitoring and evaluating adaptation progress. Expect a bumper assessment in June.

A changing committee

And finally, perhaps the most notable change for the CCC this year will be the shifting membership of our two Committees. Up to eight new public appointments will be made, through open competition, as the terms of existing Committee Members come to an end – including that of our Chairman, Lord Deben, later in the year.

The recruitment campaign has already begun to find three new Members for our Adaptation Committee. Do help us to spread the word.

The mix of skills and expertise on our two Committees since 2008 has been one of our key strengths, as an independent, evidence-led organisation. In that library of CCC publications, you’ll see the strong legacy of the current set of CCC commissioners. The coming year will see a changing of the guard and the beginning of the next era for the CCC. I’m excited to see what it will bring.

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By Professor Richard Dawson

Storm Arwen is the most recent in a long list of damaging weather events over the last decade. Again, we saw that our infrastructure services are already vulnerable to substantial damage and disruption from extreme weather. The headlines focused on the time it took to restore lights and power. But it was worse than that; transport was disrupted by snow and fallen trees, taps dried up, and some locations lost landline and mobile phone communications – the latter from switching off old copper landlines.

This very much echoed concerns raised in our most recent Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk (CCRA3) and our 2021 Progress Report to Parliament which showed that we don’t have a plan for such cascading failures. Moreover, as we increasingly digitise and electrify our infrastructure, these risks will increase further if we don’t address them strategically.

This week I was invited to contribute oral evidence to the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy inquiry into critical national infrastructure and climate adaptation. As I prepared for this it became clear to me that our security strategy must embed climate adaptation throughout. Moreover, it has to go beyond a simple recognition that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing.

Make full use of the Adaptation Reporting Power

The UK Climate Change Act gives the Secretary of State for Defra the power to direct organisations to assess climate risks and report on what they are doing to adapt to climate change. The sectors with more robust regulation and reporting requirements are making more progress with respect to their adaptation to climate-related risks. However, in recent years reporting has become voluntary and there are gaps in the organisations being invited to report, leading to a patchy understanding of the climate risks facing the UK’s critical national infrastructure. For example, the move to consolidate findings into sectoral reports has meant that no individual broadband or mobile phone operator has reported to government recently. Neither have many port operators who are so crucial to ensuring continuity of supply chains, nor the owners or the Toddbrook Reservoir in Whaley Bridge, which partially collapsed in August 2019, forcing hundreds of people to evacuate. It may be prudent to extend reporting to some local organisations who play such a crucial role in the provision of infrastructure services and emergency response. In the context of national security, the continuity of infrastructure services and supply chains is crucial. Full use of the existing legislation on adaptation reporting gives us the opportunity to understand how well risks are being managed.

Leadership to manage complex and long-term risks

Our 2021 Progress Report to Parliament showed how responsibility for climate risk is spread across UK government departments. Although Defra leads development of the National Adaptation Programme for England, they do not own the risks to critical national infrastructure. The UK government’s central risk register, managed by the Cabinet Office, focuses on incidents rather than long-term risks. There is a disconnect between managing the long- and short-term risks. Moreover, no department or minister currently has explicit responsibility for the management of infrastructure interdependencies and the cascading failures seen in Arwen or the 2019 lightning strike which accompanied a powerful electrical storm on one of the year’s hottest nights.

The government has a responsibility to systematically look at longer-term, more extreme and unexpected threats, which individuals or individual organisations are unable to think about or address. Government has to look at how critical national infrastructure systems function, what the vulnerabilities are within those systems, stress test them against the threats to which they might be exposed and identify proportionate actions to manage those risks. Establishing an Office for Strategic Risk and Resilience in the Cabinet Office would be one way of achieving this.

Give existing policies real teeth

The number of critical infrastructure sectors and climate risks can sound complex, but we have already developed several useful tools to help manage long-term climate risks. Examples include the Thames Estuary 2100 plan to manage flood risk to London and the Thames Estuary, and Shoreline Management Plans, which cover England, Wales and some of Scotland. These bring together lots of stakeholders to develop a long-term strategy to manage climate risks to people, the economy and environment in the coastal zone. However, they are not statutory; local government, and other important owners are therefore able to ignore their recommendations. The current disjoint between risk management, planning and development is not just limited to coastal areas and is locking-in climate risks to our built environment and critical national infrastructure.

Proactive prevention and preparation, not reaction and reconstruction

The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced the importance of preparation and prevention – the same is true of climate risk. The latest UK and international scientific assessments show that the frequency and intensity of climate hazards are increasing. Our policies, regulation and practice must therefore be strengthened to embed climate adaptation throughout to tackle emerging risks from critical infrastructure interdependencies and to avoid locking-in vulnerabilities to our national security.

The post Climate Adaptation must be integral to our National Security Strategy appeared first on Climate Change Committee.

Our recent report to Parliament on adaptation progress shows we’re lagging far behind where we need to be to ensure resilience to climate change in England. We have also looked back at how our climate adaptation recommendations in our 2020 Progress Report to Parliament have been actioned. The table below rates progress against our 39 adaptation recommendations 12 months on. Overall, it reveals a mixed picture:

• Government action on adaptation is underway in some areas but is still mostly lacking. Around 36% of our recommendations have been fully achieved, are underway or are partly achieved. There are signs of activity across Government. However, overall, the actual implementation of adaptation policy continues to lag far behind actions to reduce emissions. More than 75% of our recommendations in 2020 on emissions reduction have been either achieved, partly achieved or are underway. Worryingly, only one adaptation recommendation has been achieved in full – to publish an updated, long-term adaptation strategy to address increasing flooding risk.
• Major gaps remain in implementing effective adaptation policy. Most of our recommendations from 2020 (around 64%) have not been achieved. No additional policy action to drive forward our recommendations has occurred in several areas key to minimising climate risks. For example, we have not yet seen any improvement in the 25 Year Environment Plan restoration targets for terrestrial and freshwater habitats. We’d like them to include all semi-natural habitat types that are identified as being the most threatened and requiring conservation action. We’re also waiting for the introduction of a national target to increase the area of urban greenspace, and there has, as yet, been little clarification about how the impacts of flooding and coastal erosion will be managed in future planning policy.
• There are signs of a multi-speed approach in Government to adaptation action. Outside Defra (the lead department for climate change adaptation) the majority of our 2020 recommendations have not been achieved, despite important progress in some areas, including a new requirement to combat overheating proposed for inclusion in the Building Regulations which are being overseen by the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government). Overall, then, adaptation policy remains siloed and has not yet been integrated into Government-wide activity.

There is still a window for ministers to implement our recommendations ahead of the next comprehensive National Adaptation Programme for England which is due in 2023. Only with action now will we be able to deliver the step change we need to address the risks we face. Our updated recommendations are available in our latest report to Parliament.

Government should be taking these shortfalls seriously and urgently closing the gaps – delivering a Net Zero, climate resilient nation depends on it.

Join us for the CCRA webinar series to understand the climate risks we face in more detail –  https://www.theccc.org.uk/news-insights/coming-up/

The post It’s time to turn the tide on UK adaptation action appeared first on Climate Change Committee.

Climate risk and adaptation: People, health systems and the built environment

High temperatures are affecting health and wellbeing, with more than 2,500 deaths caused by the 2020 heatwaves. Yet, there has been little progress in addressing the increasing risks from overheating in our houses, health and care facilities, schools and prisons. Despite progress on flood risk management, flooding from rivers, surface water and the sea remains a major risk to people and we discuss how these risks may evolve in the future. This session considers how the UK population will be affected by climate change and how these risks are modified by the built environment.

Download the slides.

Climate risk and adaptation: The importance of nature and land use

A healthy, functioning natural environment is essential for biodiversity, the continued delivery of key ecosystem services to the economy and to the health and well-being of our society. Despite this, the assessment found that current adaptation measures are inadequate to match the scale of key risks to the natural environment, including risks to terrestrial and freshwater species and habitats, soils, and natural carbon stores and sequestration. This session considers how the natural environment is exposed to priority risks identified in the Independent Assessment of the UK Climate Risk.

Download the slides

Climate risk and adaptation: Delivering resilient UK infrastructure

Flooding remains a key risk to infrastructure with the latest climate projections indicating an increased likelihood of heavy precipitation. Recent progress in flood protection measures will need to be maintained and extended across key infrastructure sectors. An increasing reliance on electricity as the UK transitions to a Net Zero economy, and the potential for climate impacts to cascade across interconnected sectors, means further action will be needed to understand and manage risks from weather-related failures of the power and ICT sectors. Meanwhile, further adaptation will be needed to address concerns for future supply of water in summer, in the face of a rising population, environmental and climate pressures. This session considers how UK infrastructure is exposed to priority risks identified in the Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk.

Download the slides

Climate risk and adaptation: Financing a climate resilient UK

The Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk identified that adaptation generates high net benefits, in many cases, even when considering direct, financial, benefits alone. Despite this, and despite the attempts from private finance to help achieve Net Zero and diversify portfolios, there are still barriers to making public and private finance available for adaptation. This sessions considers the role of finance in delivering a climate resilient UK. One of the key goals of COP26 is to mobilise public and private sector finance.

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Climate risk and adaptation: The role of business in delivering a resilient UK

The Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk identified that businesses are vulnerable to a range of climate impacts from heavy rainfall, surface water flooding and high temperatures, to water scarcity and coastal flooding. These impacts create a range of risks, such as disruption to supply chains and distribution networks, damage to business sites and reduced productivity. Some business decisions are creating additional risk by locking in increased exposure and vulnerability. This session considers the key climate risks that businesses are exposed to in the UK and the role of business in delivering a climate resilient UK.

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Climate risk and adaptation: Achieving Net Zero

The Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk identified the importance of successfully integrating action on adaptation and mitigation across government policy. Out of 15 relevant major UK Government announcements linked to addressing climate change made over the past three years, only four have included integrated plans and goals on adapting to climate change alongside goals and plans for reducing emissions. This session considers how achieving Net Zero emissions in the UK will be affected by our ability to adapt to climate change risks.

Download the slides.

International climate risks and adaptation at COP26 and beyond

The Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk identified extreme weather events in the UK and globally can create cascading risks that spread across sectors and countries, with impacts an order of magnitude higher than impacts that occur within a single sector. Meanwhile, there is an opportunity at COP26 to show leadership on climate adaptation and secure clear commitments for increased adaptation financing and support developing countries with capacity building for implementing national adaptation actions. This session considers the exposure of the UK to international climate risks as well as the opportunity at COP26 to better integrate adaptation in global efforts to tackle climate change.

Download the slides.

The post UK Climate Risk – State of the Nation webinar series appeared first on Climate Change Committee.

As we enter this critical period of global climate diplomacy, at the UN General Assembly and COP26, negotiations will be framed by the latest report from the IPCC, the UN’s body for assessing the science of climate change. It is difficult to underplay its importance. It confirms that the science underpinning greenhouse gas emission reductions targets is robust, and further underlines why emissions reductions must be accompanied by adaptation to inevitable further climate change.

What is the IPCC report?

The report published on 9 August is the first part of a trilogy of reports that form the IPCC’s 6th Assessment. IPCC reports are commissioned by the world’s 195 national governments and the summary is agreed unanimously, line-by-line, by those governments. The report’s results are therefore an agreed basis for the COP26 negotiations and set the tone for the next phase of climate action globally. IPCC reports synthesise the state of knowledge to help inform effective policy decisions but do not make recommendations themselves.

This IPCC report reveals the huge advance in climate science over the last 8 years. There are now thousands of autonomous robots measuring changes deep within our oceans, colleagues have developed new theories and probed details of processes within the climate system using sophisticated field campaigns and novel simulations. This means that a huge amount of evidence can be brought together to make more accurate projections of global change and to quantify the unique risks that different regions of the world face with unprecedented granularity.

What does the IPCC report show?

The IPCC’s Special Report on warming of 1.5°C, published in 2018, was a key piece of evidence for our recommendation to the UK government for a 2050 Net Zero greenhouse gas emission target. The latest IPCC assessment report provides a comprehensive update to the science in the Special Report including: better understanding of how the Earth’s climate responds to emissions, an up-to-date estimate of how close global temperatures are to 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels and the remaining volume of global cumulative carbon dioxide that could be emitted to be consistent with keeping global warming below any particular threshold (such as the 1.5°C and 2°C levels referred to in the Paris Agreement). Most importantly, thanks to a much-improved estimate of climate sensitivity, the report is able to place a tighter constraint on the possible climate futures for a given emissions pathway. That means we can make more accurate predictions when it comes to thinking about the types of changes we may need to adapt to in future.

Urgent need for adaptation to weather extremes

The IPCC report is unequivocal that past emissions of greenhouse gases have led to the unprecedented rates of climate change (including heatwaves and intense rainfall) that we are seeing around the world today. It further details how we are already locked into centuries of sea-level rise and that each tonne of greenhouse gases we emit will further increase climate-related hazards around the world.

The good news is that the report makes it clear that we can stop many of these extremes getting worse by stabilising temperatures. The bad news is that the frequency of unprecedented extreme weather will continue to increase until we limit further warming by achieving global Net Zero carbon dioxide emissions. For example, the figure below shows that a heatwave that used to occur once in every 50 years, can be expected to occur every third year with 2°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels and that it will be considerably more intense when it does.

Figure details heatwave changes under different levels of global warming from Figure SPM.6 www.ipcc.ch

The report also details the risks from sudden abrupt changes to the climate, the collapse of the gulf stream being the most important to consider for the UK. These low-likelihood yet high-impact risks were recently considered as part of the UK’s third Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk. Evidence points towards the likelihood of such a collapse being relatively low  this century, especially if we are able to limit warming to lower levels. If a collapse were to occur, it could destabilise UK weather patterns in unknown ways, so such events need careful monitoring but remain difficult to plan for.

Science on emissions reductions required to hit 1.5°C, carbon dioxide removal and Net Zero has firmed up

The IPCC’s report assesses and summarises nearly a decade of new scientific understanding. This same scientific understanding has underpinned our advice to the UK Government on setting emissions targets and adapting to climate change. The IPCC report confirms that reaching Net Zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions globally is expected to stop or even slightly decline its warming influence as forests absorb the extra CO2 likely to be released by permafrost.

The report also shows that if we can go further than Net Zero CO2, to reach Net Zero greenhouse gases globally, we will be able to slowly reverse future temperature increases. This same scientific understanding was summarised in our Net Zero and Sixth Carbon Budget reports, which showed that reaching UK Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 would likely see the UK’s contribution to global temperature peak prior to 2050 and then start to decline, consistent with the IPCC’s conclusions. New scientific investigations also show that carbon dioxide removal is expected to work – in that it is effective at removing CO2 from the atmosphere and reducing ocean acidification.

The IPCC’s report also provides updated estimates of total future global emissions consistent with keeping warming to the levels mentioned in the Paris Agreement. These ‘remaining carbon budgets’ are more certain when compared to those set out in the Special Report on 1.5°C (consistent with more certainty in the plausible ranges for the Earth’s climate sensitivity in this assessment). This latest report also contains adjustments to integrate hard-to-model, slow-acting Earth system feedbacks (such as permafrost thawing). Our Sixth Carbon Budget report previously considered what ‘narrowed’ climate sensitivity ranges and additional Earth System feedbacks would mean for projected warming under global emissions pathways consistent with a central estimate of keeping warming to around 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, finding only small effects on the median expected warming from these pathways.

The findings of the IPPC’s latest report are therefore entirely consistent with the scientific basis for the UK’s Net Zero target and Sixth Carbon Budget. Overall, the IPCC concludes that if we can achieve 3-4% annual reductions in greenhouse emissions globally we still have a good chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, with the global emission reduction estimates laid out in Chapter 7 of the CCC’s Sixth Carbon Budget to meet a 1.5°C target with 50% likelihood remaining unchanged. Similarly, despite narrowed climate sensitivity estimates, the IPCC’s and our own work demonstrate that it isn’t yet possible to rule out warming exceeding 4°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century under the current level of ambition for reducing global emissions. This means that it is still sensible to consider these high levels of warming as part of a comprehensive climate change risk assessment, such as the one we published in June.

Near term action and UK leadership

Overall, the latest IPCC report strengthens the assessment set out in the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5°C that reaching Net Zero emissions by the middle of the century would limit global warming close to 1.5°C if coupled with sufficiently ambitious emissions reductions over the coming decade. So, focus can move to delivering on these targets. The IPCC report confirms that greenhouse gas reductions in the next 10 years, and reducing carbon dioxide and methane emissions especially, can help the world avoid unprecedented warming rates and improve air quality. This sends a clear message to Governments meeting at COP26 to deliver these urgent changes.

During the two-week online government approval process for the IPCC report, the UK government delegation earned respect from nations and authors alike for their diplomacy, organisation and leadership, helping to steer the report towards a set of strong, clear messages. They now pass the baton to the COP26 negotiating team, who have the vital job of securing ambitious climate action.

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